Well, this is a bit embarrassing. As you may know, I started writing and publishing my division previews a couple weeks ago to release my 2018 MLB win totals projections and picks, but a couple things happened. First, teams waited until the very last minute to sign key free agents. Because of this, the initial American League projections I posted had to be updated and I ended up just holding off on the National League to avoid doing the work twice. It's been a very strange offseason.
Secondly, I simply got behind on my writing. These division previews were 2,500 words apiece (not including the repeating introduction), and I overestimated my writing abilities. I've clearly lost some of my all-nighter research paper skills from college. I'm still going to publish the National League divisions, but I wanted to make sure my win total picks were out before Opening Day just in case. This is also a quicker, easier to read post if you're simply interested in my model's projections.
As I explained in the division previews already published, I used my predictive model that I utilize for day-to-day betting to project how each team will do in 2018. I did this by gathering individual player projections from FanGraphs, graded each team’s talent level, and then determined each team’s probability of winning every game on their schedule. After that, I simply added up all the probabilities to come up with a projected win total. It’s a bit more complex than the four steps I listed, but this is the basic idea behind my process.
After updating my model and each team's win total odds, I've narrowed my selections down to eight. Since these bets are longer-term investments and won't cash for six months, I risk 3-5 units on each depending on my confidence level and perceived edge. I've also dedicated a separate bankroll for futures, so that way I'm not locking up 20-30% of my betting funds.
In the table below, I list each's teams opening and current win total number to help show where the money has gone. The odds have moved in the direction of my projections for almost every team, which is a great sign to start the season. This mean's my numbers are in line with the sharpest baseball minds in the business, so we should have a great summer! If you'd like access to my model's daily picks and projections, click here to learn more and sign-up!
Without further ado, here are my 2018 MLB Win Totals picks and projections:
A few picks that just missed the cut, but are worth noting are: LA Angels over 84.5, St. Louis over 85.5, and Texas under 76.5.
Lastly, one important thing to point out is that the total wins listed is greater than the actual wins available. As my model's projection column shows, there are 2,430 games in the regular season; but sportsbooks are listing 2,437 at the moment. This is typical. Just like in every day NFL and NBA games, the general public is much more inclined to bet the Over rather than the Under. Because of this, win totals are shaded towards the Over to add an extra edge for the house to profit off this bias.
For 2018, I have five Under picks and three Overs (and two of the three plays that just missed my threshold are also Unders). This isn't intentional, but it's another good sign that my model recognizes the inherent value in the Under for these win totals. The main lesson is that you will always pay a premium when betting win totals over, so I just wanted to point that out while we're on the subject.
Okay, class dismissed! Let me know what you think of my projections and if you're tailing! I always love discussing these and baseball in general, so hit me up on the Twitter. And as I mentioned, you can subscribe for access to my daily picks and projections by clicking here!
Thanks for reading and good luck!