Isn’t this great? Blue skies, fresh cut grass, birds chirpin’ – and baseball. Spring Training has finally arrived, and teams are starting their first week of games in the Cactus and Grapefruit leagues. We are still weeks away from Opening Day, but 2018 MLB Win Totals were released as early as February 14 – a great Valentine’s Day gift courtesy of CG Technology. With that, it’s time to start our own Spring Training and gear up for the daily grind of betting Major League Baseball.
Like last year, I’ll be using my predictive model that I utilize for day-to-day betting to project how each team will do in 2018. I did this by gathering individual player projections from FanGraphs, graded each team’s talent level, and then determined each team’s probability of winning every game on their schedule. After that, I simply added up all the probabilities to come up with a projected win total. It’s a bit more complex than the four steps I listed, but this is the basic idea behind my process.
Unfortunately, there are still quite a few notable unsigned free agents out there so my projections may change slightly in the coming weeks. However, the win totals I have narrowed down to bet have significant edges regardless.
I’ll be covering one division at a time, going east to west in the American League and then the National League. I have included a table for each division with my projected standings, their current win total price, and a few metrics I consider. Hopefully, this will help you follow my thought process and how to view betting baseball in an analytical way.
The payout for these win total bets are six months away, but there are three main benefits for doing all this work. First, the MLB Win Total market is possibly the easiest to bet if you know how to handicap it. There are so many great resources and projections out there to help, especially if you are focused on the analytics like I am. Relatedly, the 162-game sample size allows you to rely on these same analytics much more than other sports. Comparing it to football, the variance is significantly smaller over 162 games than it is in just 16 games. This is why advanced metrics are more, well, advanced than the other major American sports. Lastly, all the preseason research needed for picking win totals helps prepare you for the daily grind of the MLB season. By comparing your numbers to the posted win totals, you have a good idea of which teams will be over- and under-valued the first few weeks of the regular season.
With that said, let’s dive in! Next up…
American League Central
| Team | 2018 Proj. W-L | Win Total | 2017 W-L | 2017 Pyth. W-L | 2017 One-Run Games | 2017 Extra Inning Games | 2017 Cluster Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indians | 98-64 | 94.0 | 102-60 | 108-54 | 20-15 | 4-2 | +31.0 |
| Twins | 83-79 | 83.5 | 85-77 | 83-79 | 15-18 | 3-3 | +23.0 |
| Tigers | 67-95 | 67.5 | 64-98 | 67-95 | 17-23 | 1-4 | -33.1 |
| Royals | 66-96 | 71.0 | 80-82 | 72-90 | 25-16 | 4-7 | -11.5 |
| White Sox | 65-97 | 68.5 | 67-95 | 70-92 | 21-23 | 5-5 | +12.0 |
Pyth. (Pythagorean) W-L: Expected 2017 record based on a formula using actual runs scored and runs given up. It is a better indicator of a team’s future performance than a team’s actual winning percentage. More info here.
One-Run & Extra-Inning Games: This is self-explanatory, but these show the records for each team in 2017 in games that were decided by one-run and games that went to extra innings. Over time, teams should win about 50% of these games, so outlier performances should not be expected the following year.
Cluster Luck: This is a calculation from Ed Feng of The Power Rank. Since teams have little control over the clustering of their hits, this metric shows how lucky (positive) or unlucky (negative) a team was last season scoring and giving up runs based off the sequencing of their hits produced and allowed.
Cleveland Indians
2018 Prediction: 98-64 Opening Over/Under: 93.5 Wins Current O/U: 94.0 Wins
Key Additions: Yonder Alonso, Melvin Upton Jr.
Key Losses: Carlos Santana, Jay Bruce, Austin Jackson, Boone Logan, Bryan Shaw, Joe Smith
2017 was another great year for the Indians, but unfortunately their season ended short once again. They started relatively slow with a 48-45 record through July 20, but it was always a matter of when, not if, they would take control of the AL Central despite a strong season from the Twins. After July 20, the Indians proceeded to win 54 of their remaining 69 games; including a league-record 22-game win streak. Those are not typos. It was truly an incredible stretch of baseball, and the team seemed destine for another trip to the Fall Classic. Sadly, they blew a 2-0 lead in the American League Divisional Series and lost the final three games to the Yankees. They sure have a knack for being one win away from things.
We’re just concerned about their regular season performance though, so can the Tribe repeat their 2017 season? Their Pythagorean record suggests they should have finished last year even better with 108 wins, though some of that can be taken away due to their 31 runs of cluster luck. Additionally, they lost some impact players both at the plate and on the mound. The six departing players listed above accounted for 11.1 WAR in 2017, which is a lot.
Instead of re-signing one of the three bats above, the front office went with cheaper options in Yonder Alonso to replace Santana and Melvin Upton Jr. to replace Austin Jackson. These are significant downgrades. To make things worse, the Indians chose to pick up Michael Brantley’s $12 million option who has played just 101 games the past two seasons due to injuries. That capital allocation makes no sense to me, especially in this free agent environment. Granted, the Indians had to make a quick decision on Brantley’s option before we really knew how the free agent market would shake out, but $12 million for a projected 1.6 WAR player in 2018 was not a great decision regardless.
Luckily, the Indians still have a stacked line-up featuring MVP-caliber players Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez, along with Edwin Encarnacion, Jason Kipnis and Bradley Zimmer. There may be a small drop-off in production, but these guys will still score plenty of runs in 2018.
The same optimism can’t be had in the bullpen, however. The departures of Bryan Shaw, Joe Smith and Boone Logan have caused the Indians to lose their status of having one of the top bullpens in the league. Last year, their relievers trailed only the Yankees with a collective 9.1 WAR, which Shaw, Smith and Boone contributed over a third of. They were replaced by cheap, near replacement-level arms, and that could come back to haunt them as bullpens become increasingly more important in this age of baseball.
This has been primarily negative for a projected 98-win team so far, so let’s look at a bright spot – their rotation. Any staff led by two-time Cy Young winner Corey Kluber is going to be strong, but when you mix in Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer and Danny Salazar, you’re looking at one of the best in the league. These guys combined for 110 starts and 17.4 WAR in 2017, so another healthy season from the starters could help the Indians get to that 93.5 win total in a big way.
Win Totals Bet (94 Wins): Over. The Indians won the AL Central already. You could argue the team may coast most of the season as they only need to be a shade over .500 to beat out the Twins, but this team still has plenty of talent to get over the hump. Additionally, the rest of the division may quite possibly finish under 70 wins each; which leaves plenty of wins for the Indians to pick up. 94 wins is a lot to ask for, especially with a weaker bullpen, but it’s hard for me to picture this team not hitting the mark in the worst division in baseball. I’ll take the over, but I have my concerns.
Minnesota Twins
2018 Prediction: 83-79 Opening Over/Under: 82.5 Wins Current O/U: 83.5 Wins
Key Additions: Logan Morrison, Jake Odorizzi, Fernando Rodney, Addison Reed, Zach Duke, Michael Pineda
Key Losses: Chris Gimenez, Matt Belisle, Bartolo Colon, Dillon Gee, Hector Santiago
What a difference a year makes. After losing 103 games in 2016, the Twins made the 2017 AL Wild Card Game by finishing last season 85-77. They went on to lose the one-game playoff to the Yankees, but that was still one hell of a turnaround for this up-and-coming team. Will 2018 offer the same story?
To start, the Twins were a shade on the lucky side as their Pythagorean record suggested an 83-win season, which matches up with their 23 runs of cluster luck. However, Minnesota was one of the rare teams making moves this offseason and picked up some solid pieces for 2018. They traded for Jake Odorizzi from the Rays and signed a cluster of free agents on great deals, including Odorizzi’s baseball mashing teammate Logan Morrison.
Chris Gimenez isn’t a significant loss at the plate, so adding Morrison along with a hopefully healthy season from Miguel Sano will provide similar production compared to 2017. However, Morrison will not be hitting 38 home runs as he did last season. His 162-game average is 23 over his eight-year career, and though he joined the launch angle craze last year, most projections have him set for about 25 homers in 2018. Regardless, that’s still a nice addition to the 20-30 dingers Brian Dozier, Sano, Eddie Rosario and Byron Buxton are each expected to hit.
As for the rotation, Michael Pineda won’t be making any meaningful contributions until 2019. He had Tommy John surgery last July, so he isn’t expected back until September at the earliest. Jake Odorizzi is an above-average pitcher though who should be able to eat up plenty of innings. He’ll be relied on early along with Jose Berrios and Kyle Gibson while Ervin Santana recovers from surgery on his middle finger for the first month of the season. Overall, the starting pitching should have a slight improvement going from a 6.4 WAR in 2017 to a projected 8.1 WAR for the upcoming season.
The additions to the bullpen will also improve the team. The Twins had the third-worst rated bullpen in the American League according to my numbers, and the front office saw the same thing as they brought in three veteran arms in Fernando Rodney, Zach Duke and Addison Reed. Collectively, the relievers should go from a 0.9 WAR to 2.3, which looks to be seventh-best in the AL.
The main thing going for the Twins is that they are an average team that plays in the worst division in Major League Baseball. Like the Indians, the Twins should pick-up plenty of easy wins against three likely 90-loss teams in the Royals, Tigers and White Sox. With that schedule, finishing 2018 above .500 and in the wild card race again is not out of the question.
Win Totals Bet (83.5 Wins): Pass. Another win total right on my projection, which I’ll say again is not a bad thing once the season starts. A slightly weaker Indians team along with the AL Central cellar dwellers may help nudge the Twins over 83.5 wins, but I agree with my model that an average pitching staff, both in the rotation and bullpen, can only take you so far.
Detroit Tigers
2018 Prediction: 67-95 Opening Over/Under: 68.5 Wins Current O/U: 67.5 Wins
Key Additions: Leonys Martin, Alexi Amarista, Francisco Liriano, Victor Reyes, Mike Fiers, Travis Wood, Derek Norris
Key Losses: Anibal Sanchez, Andrew Romine, Alex Presley, Tyler Collins, Efren Navarro, Bruce Rondon, Ian Kinsler
The Tigers could finish with just 67 wins, and quite possibly come in third place in their division. The next three slots don’t really matter as far as the standings go, but this helps show how awful the rest of the American League Central is going to be. The Tigers front office rightfully sold a majority of their assets at last year’s trade deadline, which returned a number of talented prospects and helped improve one of the league’s worst farm systems. Unfortunately, that talent won’t be helping the big-league club anytime soon.
Detroit actually had a decent start to 2017 going 39-48 before the All-Star Break, but just about everyone in the baseball world knew the impending fire sale at the trade deadline was around the corner. Following the break, the shorthanded Tigers won just 25 out of their 75 remaining games and ended the season with 64 wins. This was three wins short of their Pythagorean record, which was due to some negative variance in one-run games (17-23), extra-inning games (1-4), and cluster luck (-33.1).
As I listed above, my model is expecting the exact same result for 2018. Looking at the numbers though, it looks like their win total should be even lower. They will have a downgraded offense after losing Justin Upton, Ian Kinsler, JD Martinez, and Alex Avila due to last year’s trades. You can see how this team went 39-48 before the deadline – these guys can mash. Without them though, the Tigers are projected to have the second-worst offense in the American League ahead of only the Royals.
The Tigers will also be without a guy named Justin Verlander pitching every five days. After spending the first twelve years of his illustrious career in Detroit, Verlander was traded to the Houston Astros in the final moments of last year’s trade deadline. That means Michael Fulmer will be taking over the number one starter duties, who is one of the (very) few bright spots remaining on this roster. There isn’t much else to get excited about on the mound, and the Tigers will be taking home my preseason worst bullpen award with a projected 0.2 WAR. Worst of all, my favorite member of this bullpen, Travis Wood, is still in the American League. Hopefully, new manager Ron Gardenhire lets him pinch-hit every now and then…
Or better yet, play left field:
Win Totals Bet (67.5 Wins): Pass. I can see this team losing even more than my model projects, but like the Indians and Twins, they will get a chunk of random wins from their tanking neighbors in Chicago and Kansas City. I could have argued for under 68.5 wins when the totals came out, but we still have some value on our next team.
Kansas City Royals
2018 Prediction: 66-96 Opening Over/Under: 76.5 Wins Current O/U: 71.0 Wins
Key Additions: Wily Peralta, Jesse Hahn, Erick Mejia, Cody Asche, Scott Barlow, Ryan Goins
Key Losses: Lorenzo Cain, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Melky Cabrera, Brandon Moss, Trevor Cahill, Jason Vargas, Joakim Soria, Mike Minor, Scott Alexander
The Royals have frustrated the analytics community for years now. Ever since their miraculous run to the World Series in 2014, Kansas City has consistently outperformed its preseason projections and end of season standings metrics. Most notably, they have won more games than their Pythagorean record the past four seasons and have been in the top five for this “win luck” each time; including a whopping eight extra wins in 2017. I was adamant last spring the Royals would finish under their 76.5 win total. Numbers wise, I was right as they should have finished with 72 wins. Instead, they went 80-82 and defied Bill James’ famous formula once again; mainly by going 25-16 in one-run games.
This year, I’m doubling down – mentally, not financially. Simply by looking at their main player additions and losses, we can see plenty of wins have departed the barbeque capital of the world. Lorenzo Cain, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Melky Cabrera and Brandon Moss combined for 11.0 WAR in 2017, and the front office hasn’t attempted to replace any of that production. Instead of trading their to-be free agents Cain, Hosmer and Moustakas at last year’s deadline to build for the future, the Royals were surprise buyers to try one last playoff push with their likely departing core. Granted, the Royals were somehow 55-48 on July 30 despite an exactly zero run differential (which Pythagorean defines as a .500 team), and were only two games behind the Cleveland Indians. The numbers showed Kansas City already won more games than they should have, but GM Dayton Moore yelled “send it” to the rest of baseball and made moves to improve his team now instead of later.
Unfortunately, even the Royals couldn’t completely fight off the impending regression. After July 30, the Royals were outscored 248 to 337 over their last 59 games. They went 25-34 during the home stretch, but they should have won just 21 games according to Pythagorean (surprise). This accumulated luck helped the Royals finish three wins above their win total and flush my under ticket down the toilet.
I wrote all this about 2017 partially for context, partially to vent my frustration (and tell myself I wasn’t totally wrong), but mostly because I don’t have much to say about 2018. As I mentioned, their offense is near non-existent and projected to be the second-worst behind only the Marlins. There are rumors of unsigned free agent Mike Moustakas possibly returning, and actually that might be more than a rumor…
BREAKING NEWS
I literally got this alert as I was typing out that last sentence. How crazy is that? The universe sure is a wild place. If you haven’t seen the news, the Royals have reportedly offered Moustakas a one-year deal, and he should have a decision by Friday. Even if he does re-sign with Kansas City, my projections still have the Royals well under their 71 win total.
UPDATE: An hour later, Moustakas agreed to the deal. It’s a one-year, $6.5 million contract. I’ll need to re-run my projections, but I expect this deal to push the Royals up to 68-69 wins. The win total will definitely go up as well, keeping the under play intact.
As for pitching, the Royals are in modestly better shape on the mound than the Tigers and White Sox, which isn’t saying much but it’s a start. A rotation of Danny Duffy, Jakob Junis, Ian Kennedy, Jason Hammel and Nathan Karns isn’t the worst in the league and projected to have a 7.3 WAR in 2018. As for the bullpen though, Joakim Soria, Mike Minor, and Scott Alexander are all major losses. The trio pitched 200 innings, had 208 strikeouts, gave up just nine home runs, and combined for 3.8 WAR. Their departures leave the Royals with the second worst bullpen in baseball, just ahead of their Detroit rivals.
Win Totals Bet (71.0 Wins): Under. Under. UNDER! This number was quickly smashed down from its opening number of 76.5 wins, which I would have gladly been a part of had I been inside a CG Technology sportsbook at the time. A five-win move is pretty rare for these, but I still think there’s plenty of value at 71. This is one of my favorite plays for the futures market and would likely be my top choice if the Royals didn’t have this crazy streak of positive variance. Either way, Kansas City is going to have a tough time celebrating the Royals’ 50th season.
Chicago White Sox
2018 Prediction: 65-97 Opening Over/Under: 68.5 Wins Current O/U: 68.5 Wins
Key Additions: Welington Castillo, Joakim Soria, Hector Santiago, Bruce Rondon, Gonzalez Germen
Key Losses: Cody Asche, Mike Pelfrey, Geovany Soto, Al Alburquerque, Alen Hanson
True of False: The White Sox were in first place of the AL Central on May 4th last season. It’s crazy, but it’s true. The South Siders were an early surprise by starting the season 15-12 up to Star Wars Day (if you don’t get that joke, we can’t be friends). The force was not strong with them after that though, as they went 52-85 the rest of the way. Their Pythagorean record gave them a 70-win season, but their twelve runs of cluster luck helped contribute to that so their 67-win finish is about where it should be.
As for 2018, the books and I agree that this will be another long season for the White Sox. Rebuilds are a tough pill to swallow, but the future is looking brighter down at Guaranteed Rate Field (still can’t get over that). Recent trades of Adam Eaton, Todd Frazier, Melky Cabrera, Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, David Robertson, and Tommy Kahnle netted the White Sox a plethora of prospects, and the team now has one of the top farm systems in all of baseball. Unfortunately, most are still years away from having an impact at the big-league level.
One that definitely will though is Yoan Moncada. The key piece of the Chris Sale trade, Moncada got a taste of the show last season playing in 53 games. He’ll be a full-time big leaguer in 2018 and should give a small boost to a depleted offense. The White Sox line-up will also feature familiar faces in Jose Abreu, Avisail Garcia, Tim Anderson, and Yolmer Sanchez along with recently acquired Welington Castillo. It’s not an extremely threatening line-up, but they won’t be total pushovers either as they are projected have a marginally better offense than the Tigers and Royals.
As for pitching, it would be difficult to be any worse than last year. Jose Quintana, Miguel Gonzalez and Carlos Rodon were the only White Sox pitchers to start at least 10 games and have a positive WAR rating. And in case you forgot, Quintana and Gonzalez were traded in July and August, respectively. The bullpen was even worse as last year’s relievers finished with a combined -2.4 WAR.
This year, things are slightly brighter on the mound. Miguel Gonzalez has returned to the south side to help fill the rotation featuring Carlos Rodon, Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, and James Shields. Yes, James Shields still has a job. It won’t be pretty, but this group is projected to produce about three wins above replacement. The bullpen also gets a small bump with the Joakim Soria addition, which should help prevent back-to-back seasons with my worst rated bullpen. However, the pitching overall rates much worse than Detroit and Kansas City; which is why my model projects the Sox to finish in last place.
Win Totals Bet (68.5 Wins): Under. Not as big of a play as the Royals under, but a play nonetheless. The White Sox offense won’t be terrible as Abreu and Avisail Garcia can put together great seasons again and Moncada is expected to improve as well. However, the White Sox are projected to have the worst pitching staff in baseball by a longshot. If there’s one thing they’re good at, it’s tanking.
That wraps up my AL Central preview! I’m loving the two win total plays from the worst division in the league, so let me know if you’re riding along. If you haven’t seen all my predictions yet, click here to view each division article and my win total picks.
That wraps up my AL Central preview! I’m loving the two win total plays from the worst division in the league, so let me know if you’re riding along. Check here to view all my division articles and win total picks when they come out, or subscribe to the blog to receive them in your inbox.
Lastly, if you'd like access to my model's daily picks and make a killing betting baseball this summer, then click here! My model had a fantastic season in 2017 winning 178 units, and I have made several improvements for an even better 2018. Learn more here and sign-up today!