Someday I will have a really clever name/acronym for this, especially for how successful it has been this year. This system has been an outstanding 21-13 this season and 85-68 (55.6%) since the 2012-13 season. If you take out the 2013-14 season, which was a very rough season for me overall, the system is 73-47 (61.9%). My subscribers are already aware of its success and frequent readers have seen me mention this a few times as well. It is a very basic system that I believe makes a lot of sense. Here it is:
For any Sunday afternoon game that starts at 4:30 PM EDT or earlier, bet the under. That’s it. The link below will download an Excel file showing the system's results since the 2012-13 season.
Sunday Afternoon Unders System Results
The reasoning is just as simple. Just as you and I (generally) feel a bit more relaxed and slower moving on Sunday, so do the athletes. Of course they do their best to be hyped up and ready to go, but these games are a wild card in their usual play-at-night schedule. Almost all NBA games start between 7-10 PM EDT except for these few early games on Sundays. I noticed even before I started betting that the players would appear sluggish and off their game overall, and that these games would be very low scoring. I am now making money off of these observations.
So how does this cause the under to hit so frequently? The lackluster play creates poorer shooting, lower offensive efficiency, and a slower pace (possessions per 48 minutes). In the end, this causes less points scored. Below is a chart comparing the average Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency, and Pace between Sunday afternoon games and all others during the regular season.
Some would argue that sluggish players would cause weaker defense and cause higher scoring. This is certainly a valid argument, but the numbers say otherwise. The chart above shows that Defensive Efficiency actually improves, mainly due to the lower scoring. I also believe the reason for this is that the early start hinders the players’ fine motor skills needed on offense (shooting, dribbling, passing), while the gross motor skills used on defense (running, shuffling, boxing out) are mainly intact. I am not a statistician so I won’t try to verify that this correlation implies causation, but it sure has been a money-maker.
Speaking of a money-maker, my NBA Picks as a whole have been completely on fire this season! I am 249-202 ATS this year (55.2%) in addition to my 141-119 record on totals; up an outstanding 50.4 units so far! I offer multiple plans to fit your budget and offer the best value on the net at no risk to you. If you don’t make money, neither do I! Don't miss out on anymore winning picks by subscribing today!
Best of luck,
Stephen