With the start of the second half of the NBA season, teams are gearing up for one of two scenarios: Competing for the highest playoff seed possible, or not so slyly losing as many games as possible to improve their chances in the NBA Draft Lottery. In the sports world, this has become known as tanking. The act of tanking makes things interesting in regards to NBA betting, and today we are going to look into a system to help us profit from it.
For those that don't know, the NBA Draft is designed differently than the other three major U.S. sport leagues (NFL, MLB, NHL). Teams that don't make the playoffs are placed in a lottery for a chance to have one of the top three picks in the draft. After that, teams are ordered by winning percentage lowest to highest for picks 4-14.
The probability of winning those top three spots is greatest for the team with the least wins, and decreases as you move up the standings. Therefore, NBA teams have a much greater incentive to lose if they are clearly out of the playoff picture. Even one of the "best" teams to not make the playoffs has a chance of winning the #1 overall pick (see 2008 Chicago Bulls drafting Derrick Rose).
Of the four major sport leagues in the U.S., the NBA by far has the worst tanking problem; partially because of this draft system. Despite Commissioner Silver's repeated attempts to debunk it, the efforts by NBA front offices are clear as day. In their defense, they have a good reason to do so. No other sport is so superstar reliant in order for a team to win a championship.
The most recent NBA champions include the Warriors, Spurs, Heat, Mavericks, Lakers and Celtics. These teams all had great talent filling out the roster, but the common denominator is an elite superstar: Stephen Curry, Tim Duncan, LeBron James, Dirk Nowitzki, Kobe Bryant, and The Big Three (Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen, Paul Pierce) were their respective team’s main event. Every single one of these players was selected in the lottery, and two were the first overall pick.
Look back even farther. Elite championship teams from the 80’s and 90’s like the Bulls, Rockets, Pistons, Lakers and Celtics were similarly star-studded. Michael Jordan, Scottie Pippen, Hakeem Olajuwon, Isiah Thomas, Magic Johnson and Larry Bird were all top-five draft picks and future Hall of Famers.
There's the possibility of a team landing an elite star in free agency, but that's usually only a possibility for the big market teams (see '12 & '13 Heat, '08 Celtics). For the rest of the league, the most common way is through the NBA Draft. And despite their being a lottery to deter it, there's still an obvious incentive to tank - the more you lose the better chance you have of receiving a top three pick.
The most recent examples of this have been the Philadelphia 76ers and Minnesota Timberwolves. Of course, tanking isn’t embraced by the players. They are professional athletes who will (almost) always try their hardest. Tanking is more so a tactic used by general managers, who purposely fill out their rosters with weaker talent and strongly encourage their coaches to play young, inexperienced players. By doing this, the franchise benefits with the team losing more and receives a better chance of drafting the league's next superstar.
So with this being so apparent, all we have to do is bet against teams that will tank during the second half of the season, right? It's not that easy. You could bet against these teams to lose straight up by betting the moneyline of their opposing team, but there will be very little value with this. What about betting against them with the point spread? That doesn't work either. During the last three seasons after the All-Star Break, the 76ers (the league's most notorious tanking team) are 43-44 against the spread and were right at 50% each season. Philadelphia is three losses "ahead" of the Lakers and has six more losses than Milwaukee and Phoenix, so I don't expect them to be much different this season.
In order to make winning bets on these tanking teams, we need to narrow our focus. First, we will just look at teams with a winning percentage under 40% since teams around 50% are still competing for a playoff spot. Betting against teams that fit this criteria has a record of 1,284-1,206 (51.6%) against the spread since 2005. This is slightly better, but still not profitable.
The next step to narrow our system is to factor in who the tanking team is playing. When our defined tanking teams (winning percentage under 40%) are playing playoff-contenders (winning percentage above 50%), they drop to 647-719 against the spread. By fading* these match-ups, it has won 52.6% of spread bets.
*To fade something means to take the other side. In this example, we would always bet on the playoff-contending team to cover the spread. To learn more betting terms like this, check out my sports betting glossary.
Winning 52.6% is marginally profitable, but not enough for my risk tolerance. To narrow this system down further, we should assume tanking teams will not win two games in a row (especially when playing a playoff contender). By doing this, the system improves to 238-176 (57.5%) against the spread when fading the tanking team after winning their last game.
Lastly, we can improve this even greater by fading tanking teams at home. Research has shown that home-court advantage is overvalued, and by adding this to our fade system it becomes even more profitable. By betting against tanking teams, that won their last game, and are playing a playoff contender at home, the system is an incredible 131-81 against the spread (61.8%!!!).
So, let’s review the criterion for this betting system:
- Tanking teams are defined as teams with a winning percentage under 40%
- Playoff contending teams have winning percentages above 50%
- The tanking team won their last game
- The tanking team is at home
When all of these are met, bet the point spread on the playoff contending team. As of now, here are the teams that meet the tanking criteria:
- Philadelphia 76ers (15.1% winning percentage)
- Los Angeles Lakers (20.0%)
- Brooklyn Nets (25.9%)
- Phoenix Suns (25.9%)
- Minnesota Timberwolves 31.5%)
- New Orleans Pelicans (38.5%)
The Milwaukee Bucks (39.6%), Denver Nuggets (40.7%) and Sacramento Kings (41.5%) are all on the fringe and could fall under the tanking threshold with a short losing streak. It is also important to know that the Celtics own the Nets draft pick, which decreases Brooklyn’s incentive to tank. Conversely, the Lakers will have to give their draft pick to the 76ers if it’s outside of the top-three, which increases their incentive to tank.
So there you have it. This betting system has ten seasons worth of results to back it up, which is a very strong indicator of a solid trend. If you have any questions about this system or sports betting in general, feel free to send me a message! You can also receive betting tips just like this by subscribing to my blog.
Lastly, if you want to improve your sports betting profits and start making money on the NBA, I have the best picks on the web to go along with this system. My NBA model has been a consistent winner since 2012 and I am completely transparent with it and its past results. Check it out and see if it is right for you.
Thanks for stopping by and good luck!
-Stephen